As the world’s most populous country, India hopes to reap its demographic dividend due to its burgeoning youth population. Demographers and policy planners always knew that this window of opportunity would remain open, but only for a limited time. Declining school enrolment over the past decade marks the beginning of the end of this period. This means that India may become older even before becoming rich.
It is no wonder that the Unified District Information System for Education Plus (U-DISE+) data for 2022-23 and 2023-24, which was released by the Ministry of Education on December 30, 2024, caused much consternation as it showed a 15.5 million drop (6%) in school enrolment since 2018-19.
The official line versus the reality
Official sources have attributed the decline in enrolment to improvements in data collection. They explain that seeding Aadhaar numbers with enrolment eliminates multiple enrolments. This may sound plausible because it has long been suspected that some children are enrolled in multiple schools.
However, an analysis of decade-long data (2014-15 to 2023-24) on enrolment and its correlation with different independent variables, including the changes in the population in the age groups relevant to schooling, tells a different story. In fact, it shows a rather grim picture. The needle points toward the beginning of the end of the era of reaping the demographic dividend.
It is a matter of concern that school enrolment has plummeted by 24.51 million, or 9.45%, over the past decade, with elementary-level enrolment registering a rather pronounced fall of 18.7 million (13.45%). Up to this level, education has been free and compulsory under the Right to Education (RTE) Act since 2009.
In comparison, secondary-level enrolment declined by 1.43 million (3.75%), whereas senior secondary-level enrolments have increased by 3.63 million (15.46%) over the decade. This means that the decline began only recently.
Government and private schools
The data further show that enrolment in government and government-aided schools, which account for more than 65% of the total school enrolment (and the mainstay of the poor and marginalised sections of society), recorded a significantly higher decline: by 19.89 million (13.8%) and 4.95 million (16.41%), respectively.
In these schools, too, the decline in enrolment at the elementary level has been rather pronounced: 21.78 million (18.31%) in government schools and 3.85 million (24.34%) in government-aided schools. They have also experienced lower enrolment at the secondary level, albeit at a lower rate.
Private unaided schools have been an exception, as their total enrolment increased by 1.61 million, or 2.03%. Notably, however, they registered only a marginal increase in elementary and secondary level enrolment, though their senior secondary-level enrolment surged by 1.41 million (15.55%). These schools seemingly bucked the trend but did not remain entirely unaffected.
Enrolment has declined across the board and persisted since 2014-15, particularly at the elementary levels. They can neither be ascribed to methodological changes nor dismissed as a one-off temporary event. They reflect a systematic transition. The nation is at the cusp of a paradigm shift, and one does not have to go too far to prove this point.
It may not be a coincidence that the country’s school-going population in the age group of 6-17 years has also declined by 17.30 million (5.78%) over the past decade. The decline in the population in the age groups of 6-13 and 14-15 years, relevant to enrolment at the elementary and secondary levels, has dropped by 18.7 million (9.12%) and 2.17 million (4.35%), respectively.
Delving deeper, the data discern a statistically significant strong positive correlation between school enrolment and the estimated population in the relevant age group, so much so that the decline in the population of the relevant age group explains the 60.36% decline in enrolment.
The finding is further corroborated by the fact that the number of schools in the country has also declined by 79,109, from 1.55 million in 2017-18 to 1.47 million in 2023-14, a decline of 5.1%. These are in sync with the fact that India’s fertility rate declined to 2.01 in 2022, which is far below the replacement level of 2.10. The persistent plummeting of school enrolment is mainly due to demographic changes, which do not augur well for the country.
The social impact
A burgeoning youth population is necessary for enrolment growth, which India has been experiencing until recently. It has now entered the phase when the population bulge is shifting to the right. Since the process began only recently, it is reflected rather sharply in elementary-level enrolment. The effect will gradually but firmly be felt in secondary and senior secondary-level enrolment, and will finally impinge on higher education.
As is already the case in most developed countries, we will soon face the transition to a shrinking working-age population. This is disconcerting because it is happening sooner than expected.
Ideally, a country must reap as much demographic dividend as possible to generate much-needed income and wealth to support and sustain the burden of an ageing population. India will likely see its population age even before becoming rich.
Declining school enrolment has less to do with the change in data collection method than a shift in the demographic bulge to the right. Unless the 2021 Census, which is yet to begin, presents a different demographic trend, it could mark the beginning of the end of the demographic dividend for India.
Furqan Qamar, a professor of management, has served as an adviser (education) at the Planning Commission and as Vice-chancellor of the University of Rajasthan and the Central University of Himachal Pradesh. He also led the Association of Indian Universities (AIU) as Secretary General. Sameer Ahmad Khan is a research scholar in the faculty of management studies of Jamia Millia Islamia, working on citizenship behaviour in educational institutions
Published – February 19, 2025 12:08 am IST