Two years ago, on February, 6, 2023, the people of Türkiye and Syria were jolted out of their sleep. At least 17,000 were killed, with their numbers mounting within minutes, as a great earthquake shook those countries in the early hours after 4 a.m., at 7.8 on a scale of 0 to 10. A second jolt came like a collaborator of the first, nine hours later, destroying whatever buildings stood on or around the scene of the first trauma.
‘Fault lines’ is an expression that we come across and use as we might ‘glaciers’ or ‘ deserts’. That is, without realising that it refers to an intensely volatile and totally unpredictable phenomenon, like the temper of the proverbial sleeping dragon or demon. Fault lines lie between the 15 log-jammed major tectonic plates on which the earth’s thin crust sits.
These lines can slumber for decades, even centuries, quietly, one may say so ‘sweetly’, that their very existence can be forgotten by all except seismologists. Until…the fault line stir, rise, shake and then go on to mutilate, destroy and kill whatever lies on and along those lines. Depending on the degree of the awakened one’s temper, the fury lasts or abates till such time as it lasts or abates.
Nature’s brewing tension
India’s Indian Plate pressing onto the Eurasian Plate sculpted the Himalaya. The fault line involved runs right along the great Himalayan arc that stretches from Kashmir to the North East. It also implicates adjacent tracts in Pakistan, the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China, Nepal and Bhutan.
We are but dimly aware of this. For those of us who do not live in those stunningly beautiful tracts, that region means and evokes snow, pure air, clear waters, holidays and leisure. But we must know, must understand, the concurrent ‘scene’ which is about potential rubble, ravaged hill sides, mutilated river courses. And trauma.
We must shake ourselves out of our dangerous illusion, our perilous innocence about the reality beneath our feet. Seismologists tell us that the two great tectonic plates, the Indian and the Eurasian, have now slept their really deep sleep long enough now and that the built-up pressure inside their folds cannot be expected to hold its tension much longer.
Sure enough, a little over just one month ago, on January 7, 2025 at 9:05 a.m., an earthquake measuring Mw 7.1 struck Shigatse city of the Tibet Autonomous Region of Southwestern China. Between 126 and 400 people were reported killed and 338 were injured. Unmindful of national borders and oblivious of lines of actual or notional control, the quake made itself felt in Nepal and in Northern India.
In the media
On January 10, The Hindu had an editorial, “Damage control”, that said, ‘If the epicentre had been located closer to India, the damage could have been manifold.’ And added, ‘Earthquakes in the Himalayas evoke a special kind of dread in the country.’ The comment was right. Dread they do cause. But have they occasioned the kind of intense and urgent planning that is needed? Have they occasioned national alertness, resolve and action? The Editorial went on to say, ‘Unfortunately, predicting the day and time is outside the ambit of current science. Thus, the best we can hope for is insulation against the projected damage. It is in this context that infrastructure development in the Himalayan region must be viewed. While several of these projects are intended to smooth the movement of people and goods, the recurrent landslides and glacial lake outbursts that wash away dams, hydropower projects, and roads serve as a constant reminder of the inherent fragility of the region. Every form of infrastructure in the region — power plant or dam — must take into account the imminence of a major earthquake and the associated costs factored into planning.’
The Editorial said, ‘Adhering to already existing building codes, not only in the Himalayas but in the surrounding Indo-Gangetic plains, can go a long way in limiting the inevitable damage.’ If such adherence was good enough as a response one month ago, the earthquakes that shook the national capital on February 17, and within four hours, Siwan in Bihar, suggest that adherence to existing codes is not enough, Not enough by half.
Social media told us that there were people in Delhi who said they had never felt a tremor so big. This was impressionistic, perhaps, but impressions that come from real sensations under one’s feet are real in a way that reports and reconstructed scenes are not. One post said ‘today Delhi and Bihar, tomorrow West Bengal…’
It was salutary and sobering to see a post from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, barely back from his brief visit to the United States, reaching out to the people of Delhi, asking them to stay calm and take precautionary steps. The really meaningful precautions are not within the means of the people. They must come from government, from the state.
We are now in a contingency that must take into account: high probability; high financial and physical cost if provided for, and incalculably higher if not provided for.
The principle is the same as in any insurance arrangement: the higher the risk the higher the premium.
Time to act, and quickly
We need, not just quickly, not just urgently but quite immediately, to provide for state expense on, first, fore-closing and rolling back engineering enterprises that weaken the earth’s crust, especially rocky terrain, in India’s seismic risk zones in the ascending calibration of II, III and IV.
Second, super-imposing on the existing seismic zonation maps which are really x-ray plates, new carefully drawn mapped-plans for the protection (which can include evacuations, demolitions and re-building) of highly vulnerable structures, and assessing the seismic status of high follow-on secondary risk structures such as like hydel projects and atomic reactors (Narora in Uttar Pradesh is located in Zone IV).
Third, setting up a seismic building insurance scheme wherein premiums for insuring against collapse can be offered and encouraged.
Fourth, doing an assessment of the costs of rescue, temporary sheltering and rehabilitation zone-wise, of dislocated populations.
Fifth, fast-forwarding collaboration with countries that are experts in the field on earthquake anticipation through sensors, and architecture nostrums. This would involve expenses on hiring consultants.
All this sounds grim. But we should tell ourselves that there is the ‘good news’ that we are, as of this moment, ahead of the big seismic shock that has been anticipated by seismologists. We are capable of planning with some composure, even as we recover from the shock of February 17, not in a post-shock trauma accompanied by fiscal crippling. And, we have an institutional advantage in the shape of a Ministry of Earth Sciences and a Disaster Management Authority waiting to be harnessed in any scheme towards seismic resistance.
The ‘motto’ is brief: earthquakes are not to be prevented, they can scarcely be predicted, even in our age of Artificial Intelligence. But they can be prepared for. Is anyone doing that?
Gopalkrishna Gandhi is a former administrator, diplomat and Governor
Published – February 19, 2025 12:16 am IST