(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.)
Many trace the roots of the Ukraine war to the 2008 Bucharest summit of NATO in which the U.S. proposed membership in the trans-Atlantic nuclear alliance for Georgia and Ukraine, both Russia’s neighbours and Black Sea basin countries. “NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO,” read the Bucharest Declaration, issued on April 3, 2008. Within a few months, President Vladimir Putin of Russia sent troops to Georgia in the name of protecting the country’s two breakaway regions — South Ossetia and Abkhazia — but effectively bringing the country’s bid to join NATO to an end. Six years later, after Ukraine witnessed a regime change, Russia annexed Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that hosted Russia’s Black Sea fleet from the time of the Catherine the Great. The crisis that began in 2014 would lead to a full scale Russian invasion of the country on February 24, 2022.
Cut to the present. On February 12, Pete Hegseth, America’s new Defense Secretary, told the Ukraine Defence Contact Group that “the U.S. does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement”. He also said any security guarantee for Ukraine “must be backed by capable European and non-European troops”, and that they should be deployed as part “a non-NATO mission”. The Defense Secretary also said the U.S. wants a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. “But we must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.”
On the same day, President Donald Trump had “a lengthy and productive call” with Mr. Putin. They agreed “to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the war with Russia/Ukraine”, according to Mr. Trump. The U.S. President said he has asked his team “to start negotiations immediately” with Russia to bring the war to an end. Later the Trump team stated that neither Ukraine nor Europe would be part of the negotiations, which is expected to begin in Saudi Arabia this week. Mr. Trump has also demanded Ukraine provide the U.S. access to half of the country’s mineral resources in return for America’s support—Kyiv has rejected this demand.
Until recently Mr. Zelenskyy’s position was that peace would be possible only if Russia withdrew from all the territories it captured — including Crimea. He had earlier circulated a 10-point peace formula, which demanded Russia’s complete withdrawal and Ukraine’s membership in NATO. This was a time when the U.S. (Biden administration) and its European partners said they would support Ukraine ‘as long as it takes’. Later, after Mr. Trump’s election and Ukraine suffered back-to-back battlefield setbacks, Mr. Zelenskyy agreed to “freeze” the conflict along the line of contact (which means Russia could keep the territories it has captured) in return for NATO membership and Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
Now Mr. Hegseth has shot down both — no NATO membership and no security guarantees from the U.S. “To be clear, as part of any security guarantee there would not be US troops deployed to Ukraine,” he said on February 12. What does it mean? Mr. Trump wants to bring the war to an end, and he will hold direct talks with Mr. Putin for the same. Ukraine and Europe will be excluded from the U.S.-Russia talks. Ukraine is not going to get the territories it has lost. Ukraine is not going to become a member of NATO. Ukraine is not going to get any credible security guarantees from Washington. And any future conflicts in Ukraine won’t be covered under NATO’s collective security.
Mr. Zelensky has said that Ukraine would not accept any deal made “behind our back”. He has also urged European countries to form a continental army to take care of Europe’s security concerns. But beyond the rhetoric, if the U.S. cuts a deal with Russia, it would be extremely difficult for Ukraine to continue the war. For Europe, any direct agreement between the U.S. and Russia, excluding the continent, would mark an epochal shift in an alliance that was built during and after the Second World War.
Modi in America
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Trump discussed a wide range of issues ranging from weapons sales and extradition of 26/11 accused Tahawwur Rana to trade deals when they met in Washington last week. Mr. Trump offered to sell state-of-the-art fighter jets to India as he and Mr. Modi vowed to ramp up trade. A new 10-year framework for the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership is set to be signed this year. Mr. Trump has announced that his administration has approved the extradition of “very evil” Tahawwur Rana, wanted by Indian probe agencies for his role in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, “to face justice in India”. India and the U.S. agreed to conclude the first phase of a mutually beneficial ambitious trade pact by this year and set a target of $500 billion in annual bilateral trade by 2030. “The positive optics and their camaraderie signal a strong foundation for India-U.S. relations over the next four years,” writes The Hindu in this editorial. However, “there is not much evidence that Mr. Modi’s visit significantly softened Mr. Trump’s stance on imposing counter-tariffs and reciprocal taxes or influenced a more humane approach to the deportation of undocumented immigrants aboard military flights. These could present challenges for the Indian government going forward.
The Top Five
1. Adani Green withdraws from renewable project in Sri Lanka
Adani Green’s wind farm project in northern Sri Lanka has remained under the scanner from the time it was approved by the Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration in 2022, without a competitive tender process, reports Meera Srinivasan.
2. China’s dam project opens the floodgates of concern
While the project aligns with China’s ambitious energy transition goals, it has serious implications for India, which cannot be understated, write Amit Ranjan, Nabeela Siddiqui.
3. M23: Rebels who lost their cause
The Congolese militants backed by neighbouring Rwanda continue to make territorial gains but also face serious allegations of war crimes, writes Adithya Narayan.
4. Interpreting the recent Bangladesh-Pakistan thaw
With the count of hostile neighbours growing, India needs to be both vigilant and constructive in its ties with Bangladesh, writes Aishwaria Sonavane.
5. How will freeze on USAID affect the world?
Why is the U.S. administration halting foreign assistance and scaling back personnel in the United States Agency for International Development? What will happen if the agency stops funding development projects in many countries? Which are the key sectors it is involved in? What will be the fallout on the Global South? Writes Ramya Kannan.
Published – February 17, 2025 12:29 pm IST