China was able to make up for the fall by finding newer markets or selling more to other trade partners.
Trade data shows that despite facing tariff headwinds from the U.S., the world’s largest importer, China, the world’s largest exporter, has managed to increase its overall exports, till at least 2023. A series of tariff escalations by the U.S. on Chinese products from 2018 led to fewer imports by the U.S. from China in the following years. Despite this, China’s share in global exports rose from around 13% in the years before the tariff escalations to 15% in the years following them.
In fact, the U.S.’s share in many of China’s top export commodities declined considerably after the tariff escalations in 2018. China was able to make up for the fall by finding newer markets or selling more to other trade partners.
In January 2018, the average rate of U.S. tariffs on Chinese products was a little over 3%. By the time President Donald Trump’s first term ended, the average tariffs on each others’ products was around 20%, which remained the same during the Biden years as well. However, this year, the U.S.’s tariffs on Chinese products kept increasing and is now finally pegged at a staggering 145%. Beijing retaliated by raising duties on U.S. products to 125%.
With the tariffs reaching very high levels, it remains to be seen whether China will be able to retain its dominance in world trade. In fact, by April 2025, all the commodities exported by the U.S. to China and vice-versa were subjected to some level of tariffs. This was not the case during former U.S. President Joe Biden’s term, with tariffs being applied on around 60-70% of the products.
Chart 1 shows the share of exports from the U.S. that were subject to tariffs from China and vice versa from 2018 to 2025.
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Chart 2 shows the share of China’s top five export destinations from 2014 to 2018 (before escalations) and 2019 to 2023 (after).
The U.S. remained the largest importer of Chinese products by a wide margin in both the periods, though the share did come down significantly in the 2019-2023 period. Before escalations, 9.7% of Chinese exports went to the U.S.; after escalations, this reduced considerably to 8.1%.
The decline in China’s exports to the U.S. becomes even more evident in Chart 3, which shows China’s export growth in two five-year periods: 2014-18 and 2-19-23.
During the five years prior to the tariff escalations (2014–2018), China’s exports to the U.S. grew by 35.5% when compared with the previous five-year period (2009-2013). However, in the five years following the escalations (2019-2023), export growth slowed significantly, rising by only 20% relative to the 2014–2018 period.
China was able to offset this decline by boosting exports to non-U.S. markets. While exports to non-U.S. countries grew by only 26.8% in the 2014-2018 period, they increased by 37.3% during the 2019-2023 period, effectively compensating for the drop in exports to the U.S.
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This compensation was also seen at the product level.
Chart 4A shows the fall in the U.S.’s share across China’s major export items between 2019 and 2023 compared with the 2014-2018 period
The U.S.’s share in many of China’s major exports fell in the period. In other words, China had to look elsewhere to bridge the gap.
Chart 4B shows that China managed to find newer markets for most of these items. The chart shows China’s share in the world’s total exports of all the items listed in Chart 4A.
In the post-escalations period, China’s share in the world’s total exports increased in electrical machinery, furniture, plastics, vehicles, organic chemicals, rubber and paper. In other words, for these major export items, despite the decline in the U.S.’s share, China continued to dominate world trade.
Also read: Agricultural protectionism pushes up India’s import tariff: Data
Published – April 26, 2025 08:00 am IST